Donald Trump will not be impeached. People like Mike Flynn and other subordinates will be sacrificed and Donald Trump will escape this. There are not enough votes to get him out and the violations not flagrant enough. No direct interaction between Trump and the Russian operatives or whatever. The Robert Mueller investigation will take some time. At least the summer and beyond most likely. But instead of bedrock level corruption he will find some shady stuff that is not necessarily full blown treason. His job is to make everyone believe, with his larger than life solid reputation, that all is well the institutions of America. It’s all good! Back to work everyone. Unfortunately, Donald Trump will still be POTUS. He is really bad at it. So far.
Donald Trump’s biggest strategy flaw to date is trying to enact policy at the executive level. This is a fail for two main reasons. The first is that governing this way has too many impediments and they are not real laws. Easily stopped by judges and easily repealed by the next president. The second reason executive branch governing doesn’t work is because it is outside of Congress and the preferred path. This turns people off. More specifically it turns off the middle. Whether it is President Obama or President Trump, people in the middle who believe in the checks and balance system don’t like this straying behavior. It goes into a realm of dangerous nuance or shadow-dark government. A lot of opinion makers say this does not hurt Trump at all because his base is loyal. Which is true. But the first 100 days and this executive style of governing has lost Donald Trump a huge chunk of the middle that were playing wait and see. Some of this chunk voted for Trump quietly. They hoped and mildly or cautiously believed he might be able to shake things up. They had hope. Another middle chunk, which I consider myself part of, did not vote for him but also had hope. Hey, he is our president now and I will give him 100 days to produce some results. Observe if The Donald has it or not. The people voted him in, and I still am an American, and you have my attention now. Now I sit here embarrassed that I ever had such dopey hope. The first 100 days were a failure from a policy standpoint. Regardless of how or why or who, it tanked. Trump still has his base, but the middle is farther away now for him. Worse yet, he is playing catch-up now from a ruthless starting point. The policies he promised are, as of today, all stalled and now the Russia special counsel.
I honestly don’t think, as of today, there is enough to impeach Donald Trump. He is insulated enough from his campaign staff that it may never get to him. Robert Mueller wasn’t chosen to take down Donald Trump and get him out. Why would he accept that job after the career he has had? Instead he is there to take out the B team and then exit. Donald Trump to this point has been very loyal. But in the end he will let Flynn and others go down for him. He will do so publicly towards the end. That is politics. What politicians and the establishment are worrying about is the crisis of confidence in the government system. Trump is doing his best to destabilize things and it really worries the establishment. For these folks impeaching Trump would be bad for everybody. It would be bad for Republicans, bad for Democrats, and create further distrust by the public. So, the best outcome here is to end this and get back to the status quo. If Trump goes into isolation, and is rarely heard from, he will be able to wait this out. Hard for him to do but possible. He has to realize that he has spent all of his con-man juice for now. In his book, he openly admits you can fool people for a time but eventually you must have results.
At this point The Donald needs to pivot and put the heat on both republicans and democrats. He did so much to insulate himself installing Kushner and the like. He must act like the outsider he proclaimed he was. Draining the swamp means going after establishment GOP too. The people that voted for him know this. On healthcare, he could make statements that point to the futile results of Republicans when it comes to the “Replace” part of healthcare reform. How great would it be to see Donald Trump publicly go after Paul Ryan and put him on the spot for results. Paul Ryan is so vulnerable right now that at the very least he is an easy target and healthcare can be hung around his neck. He botched this very badly. He could go after Democrats and paint them as just blockers of progress. Donald Trump could spin all of this to say, “I came to work and found out I am the only one willing to work”. But he won’t do that. He was swallowed up immediately by his party, the swamp, and the realities of being president. Instead of ignoring the media the media owns him. He did way too much too sign with executive orders and it backfired. He sided with the GOP on repeal and replace and allowed himself to be linked forever to their utterly pathetic and terrible bill. Goldman Sachs all over the cabinet. A month in he is a GOP swamp member and, also a surrogate for the wall street class. A terrible cocktail. These blunders were so bad and blatant they alienated anyone on the Trump edge. Both the wait and see crowd that voted for Hillary, and the reluctant Trump voters. Both lost in 100 days.
So today in May I look forward to the remaining months of 2017 and try to sum up what will happen. Donald Trump will not be impeached after a long year of leaks, news blah, and slander resulting in minimal evidence and complete exhaustion. Donald Trump will also remain a terrible president incapable of getting things done in any meaningful way. He just doesn’t have it. He doesn’t want to be an agent of change and just doesn’t have the resolve and character for it. Why would he? Nothing about pre-president Donald Trump was ever an example of right over wrong or a sacrifice for the greater good of people.